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Resurgence of inflation: Assessing the role of macroeconomic policies

Raza, Hamid; Laurentjoye, Thibault; Randrup Byrialsen, Mikael y Valdecantos, Sebastián ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4232-4778. (2023). Resurgence of inflation: Assessing the role of macroeconomic policies. (Working Paper No. 2301).

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After decades of relative consumer price stability, inflation is now making a come-back as a central topic in economic and political discussions, against a backdrop of various policy challenges. The aim of this paper is to provide a nuanced assessment of the different channels through which monetary, fiscal and income policies can affect prices and output in a small open economy, as well as discuss which policy measures are desirable and practically feasible when such an economy experiences inflationary shocks. To do so, we adopt a comprehensive modelling approach and build an empirical stock-flow-consistent model using sectoral national account data for Denmark over the period 2005Q1-2020Q1. We then replicate the inflationary environment in which Denmark and several other countries are currently operating and introduce a monetary policy reaction which leads to a modest reduction in inflation at the cost of further contracting the economy. Taking monetary tightening as a forced policy response in the case of a small open economy with fixed exchange rate, we explore a number of policies that, within the current institutional and legal framework, can potentially mitigate the adverse effects of inflation. Specifically, we introduce fiscal interventions - in the form of tax cuts on income and production - along with wage- and price-based income policies. Our main conclusion is that a close coordination of fiscal and income policies can help reduce the effects of adverse shocks to income without increasing inflation. Finally, we address a question of political relevance by exploring the effects of different policies on public budget and debt. Overall, we find that of all the policies implemented, monetary policy has the most dramatic effects on public debt sustainability.

Tipo de documento: Monografía (Documento de Trabajo)
Serie: Working Paper
Editorial: PKES
Institución: Post-Keynesian Economics Society (PKES)
Estado: Publicado
  • Publicado: Enero 2023
Palabras Clave: Macroeconomía, Política Económica, Inflación
Alcance Geográfico: Dinamarca
Filiación: Facultad de Cs. Económicas y Sociales > Centro de Inv. Económicas y Sociales > Grupo Análisis Industrial
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URI: http://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4080
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