Functional income distribution, effective demand and wealth in Denmark - insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model

With the important contribution of Marglin and Bhaduri different demand and growth regimes were identified, which inspired a strand of empirical research aiming to uncover the type of growth regime. Most of these studies can be framed into two methodological approaches: (i) a structural, and (ii) an aggregative approach. In this paper, we use a third approach where we exploit the advantages of the stock-flow consistent framework. We argue that using an empirical SFC model retains the advantages of the two more widely used approaches, while adding some novel features: (i) the endogenization of income distribution, which allows for a two-way relationship between demand and income shares, (ii) the consistent incorporation of stock variables in the estimation of the equations of aggregate demand components, and (iii) the inclusion of endogenous labor market dynamics in the analysis. To introduce these features, we build an empirical stock-flow consistent model for Denmark for the period 2005q1-2020q1. Our analysis suggests that demand can neither be categorically defined as wage-led nor profit-led, as the effects of a change in income distribution on the aggregate demand components cancel each other out. Results are more conclusive for capital accumulation, which is found to be profit-led.